{"id":34331,"date":"2021-09-10T11:45:22","date_gmt":"2021-09-10T09:45:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/foretnature.be\/resume-foret-mail\/sous-leffet-des-changements-climatiques-quel-paysage-forestier-a-lhorizon-2080\/"},"modified":"2021-09-10T11:45:22","modified_gmt":"2021-09-10T09:45:22","slug":"sous-leffet-des-changements-climatiques-quel-paysage-forestier-a-lhorizon-2080","status":"publish","type":"resume-foret-mail","link":"https:\/\/foretnature.be\/en\/resume-foret-mail\/sous-leffet-des-changements-climatiques-quel-paysage-forestier-a-lhorizon-2080\/","title":{"rendered":"Sous l&rsquo;effet des changements climatiques, quel paysage forestier \u00e0 l&rsquo;horizon 2080 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>De nombreux chercheurs ont tent\u00e9 de mod\u00e9liser les modifications de la distribution des essences sous l&rsquo;effet des changements climatiques. Cependant, la plupart des mod\u00e8les se basent sur relativement peu de donn\u00e9es ou utilisent des sc\u00e9narios de changements climatiques anciens. Pour pr\u00e9ciser les effets des changements climatiques sur les for\u00eats, douze essences ont fait l&rsquo;objet de mod\u00e9lisation \u00e0 l&rsquo;horizon 2061-2080. Pour obtenir une large base d&rsquo;informations, les donn\u00e9es de nombreux organismes de suivi des peuplements ont \u00e9t\u00e9 compil\u00e9es (Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, inventaire forestiers). La mod\u00e9lisation a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e selon 3 sc\u00e9narios : optimiste, mod\u00e9r\u00e9 et pessimiste.<br \/>\nLes douzes essences test\u00e9es ont offert des r\u00e9ponses vari\u00e9es selon le climat projet\u00e9. Elles peuvent \u00eatre divis\u00e9es en 3 groupes : les vainqueurs, principalement les esp\u00e8ces dryades (sapin pectin\u00e9, h\u00eatre, fr\u00eane, ch\u00eane p\u00e9doncul\u00e9 et sessile), les perdants, pour la plupart des esp\u00e8ces pionni\u00e8res (bouleau verruqueux, m\u00e9l\u00e8ze d&rsquo;Europe, \u00e9pic\u00e9a commun, pin sylvestre) et enfin les esp\u00e8ces exotiques, qui peuvent \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme vainqueurs (douglas, ch\u00eane rouge d&rsquo;Am\u00e9rique, robinier).<br \/>\nVu le faible pouvoir de dispersion, la plupart des esp\u00e8ces connaissent une diminution importante de leur habitat potentiel. Les esp\u00e8ces les plus menac\u00e9es sont celles dont l&rsquo;aire centrale de distribution est la plus nordique. Les cons\u00e9quences des changements envisag\u00e9s sont lourdes tant pour la gestion foresti\u00e8re que la conservation de la nature.<br \/>\nDyderski M. K., Paz S., Frelich L. E., Jagodzinski A. M. (2018). How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?Global Change Biology,\u00a0doi: 10.1111\/gcb.13925.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>De nombreux chercheurs ont tent\u00e9 de mod\u00e9liser les modifications de la distribution des essences sous l&rsquo;effet des changements climatiques. Cependant, la plupart des mod\u00e8les se basent sur relativement peu de donn\u00e9es ou utilisent des sc\u00e9narios de changements climatiques anciens. Pour pr\u00e9ciser les effets des changements climatiques sur les for\u00eats, douze essences ont fait l&rsquo;objet de [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[50],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sous l&#039;effet des changements climatiques, quel paysage forestier \u00e0 l&#039;horizon 2080 ? - For\u00eat.Nature<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/foretnature.be\/en\/resume-foret-mail\/sous-leffet-des-changements-climatiques-quel-paysage-forestier-a-lhorizon-2080\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sous l&#039;effet des changements climatiques, quel paysage forestier \u00e0 l&#039;horizon 2080 ? - For\u00eat.Nature\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"De nombreux chercheurs ont tent\u00e9 de mod\u00e9liser les modifications de la distribution des essences sous l&rsquo;effet des changements climatiques. 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